Payments Dive 报道，ICSC 和 McKinsey 的报告预计，美国 B2C 零售市场中的 agentic commerce 到 2030 年可能达到 1 万亿美元规模。文章还提到，消费者已经在购物过程中大量使用 AI 工具来比较品牌、价格和评价。这个趋势很热，但支付问题没有那么浪漫：当 AI 代理替用户下单，谁来证明授权真实、商品合适、退款合理？

现在的电商支付默认一个人正在屏幕前做决定。即使有一键支付、钱包和订阅，责任链大致还能解释：用户授权，商户履约，支付服务商处理交易。AI 代理加入后，链条变长了。用户可能只给出目标和预算，代理负责搜索、比较、下单，甚至选择支付方式。商户看到的可能只是一个交易请求，却不知道背后的意图是否足够明确。

这会影响拒付和退款。用户可能说“我没有授权买这个型号”，商户可能说“订单来自有效账户”，代理平台可能说“模型按用户指令执行”。如果没有清楚的授权记录、确认界面和证据格式，争议会很难处理。支付服务商也需要判断：代理发起的交易和人类点击的交易，风控信号是否应该一样？

对 AI 产品团队来说，支付不能最后再接。应该在产品设计阶段就记录授权范围、预算上限、替代商品规则、确认步骤和取消路径。对商户来说，也要决定哪些品类可以让 AI 自动购买，哪些订单必须二次确认。

Agentic commerce 的机会很大，但支付不是附属功能。没有责任边界，增长越快，争议越多。

产品设计先补齐

  • 记录用户授权的范围、时间和金额上限。
  • 对替代商品、订阅和高客单价订单设置确认步骤。
  • 让退款和争议证据能同时解释人类指令与 AI 行为。

Agentic Commerce Needs Payment Liability Rules Before Scale

Payments Dive reported that agentic commerce in the U.S. B2C retail market could reach $1 trillion by 2030, based on an ICSC and McKinsey report. Consumers are already using AI tools to compare brands, prices, and reviews. The payment question is less glamorous: when an agent buys for a user, who proves authorization?

Today’s checkout assumes a human is making the decision. Wallets, subscriptions, and one-click checkout still follow a familiar chain: the user authorizes, the merchant fulfills, and the processor handles the transaction. AI agents stretch that chain. A user may provide a goal and budget while the agent chooses product, merchant, and payment method.

That affects disputes. A consumer may claim the wrong item was purchased. A merchant may point to a valid account. An agent platform may say it followed instructions. Without authorization records, confirmation steps, and usable evidence formats, the dispute becomes hard to resolve.

AI product teams should design payment rules early: budget limits, substitution rules, confirmation moments, cancellation paths, and evidence logs. Merchants should also decide which categories can be purchased automatically and which need human confirmation.

Agentic commerce can grow quickly. Without liability design, disputes will grow with it.

Sources & further reading / 参考资料

  1. US agentic sales to reach $1T by 2030: report — Payments Dive, May 7 2026